MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal to produce 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 within a newly sanctioned industry development framework. This target is incorporated into the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal growth strategy. In 2024, the country’s coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The Russian government approved this initiative through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, establishing long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and industry advancement.
The plan details four potential trajectories for the coal industry through 2050. Under the primary scenario, output is projected to reach 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036. It then increases further, culminating in 662 million tonnes in 2050. The alternative scenarios predict lower 2050 output levels, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside the production targets, Russia also set export benchmarks. The primary scenario anticipates coal exports to be 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. This figure is expected to grow to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036 and reach 350.1 million tonnes in 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic consumption and international trade of coal.
Production and export objectives
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding additional coal resource development. It emphasizes a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which accounted for 48.3% of national coal production in 2024. By 2050, this share is projected to increase between 53.9% and 56.7%. Russia reports explored coal reserves exceeding 273 billion tonnes.
The strategy also sets specific goals for coal processing and mining techniques. The share of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9% in 2024. The plan foresees this percentage rising to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining, which contributed 78.4% of production in 2024, is expected to constitute between 82% and 85% of output under long-term projections. The document further addresses productivity improvements, technological advancements, safety enhancements, and environmental measures.
Coal development strategy extending to 2050
Russia’s implementation of the plan will occur in three phases. The initial phase, ending in 2030, involves measures related to boosting production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will focus on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase, spanning from 2037 to 2050, will involve comprehensive long-term development efforts. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution, collaborating with federal, regional authorities, and other organizations, providing annual reports to the Ministry of Economic Development as mandated by government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated plan during a government session on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s earlier coal industry strategy, which was approved in 2020 and projected through 2035. Novak noted that the plan envisions a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with a total multiplier effect nearing 10 trillion roubles. The goal of 662 million tonnes is considered a scenario target rather than an unconditional forecast.