POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – According to recent research, climate change could cause the area affected by wildfires across Europe to nearly triple by 2100. The study forecasts a 192% rise in annual burned land under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global temperature increase. This research follows significant wildfire events in 2026 that impacted regions of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The core climate drivers identified in the analysis remain hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study utilized two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Scientists examined a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The former corresponds to around 1.8°C of warming, whereas the latter reaches about 3.6°C. To isolate the influence of socioeconomic factors, separate experiments maintained these variables constant, focusing solely on their impact on wildfire activity.
Under the lower-emissions scenario, one model projected roughly a 39% increase in land burned annually by the century’s end. Conversely, a second model suggested a possible decrease under lower warming conditions, reflecting different interpretations of historical human influences. In the high-emissions case, the models indicated substantially stronger growth in burned areas, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe. Notably, some of these regions have historically experienced relatively low fire activity.
Models highlight the influence of emissions on burned land
Findings from the study emphasize that fire weather and fire-management capabilities are critical factors in determining future wildfire patterns in Europe. Additionally, elements like population density, vegetation changes, and land use significantly influence outcomes at regional levels. The lead author, Maik Billing, affiliated with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained that the analysis distinguishes climate-driven fire weather from human-related factors that can modify fire spread.
Advances in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could potentially reduce burned land by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios lacking these improvements. These reductions are more pronounced under the lower-emissions scenario and less so under more severe warming. Despite ongoing improvements in fire management, approximately 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could still experience increased fire activity due to intense climate change. Co-author Thomas Hickler, who is part of the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, contributed to these insights.
Effective fire management can mitigate wildfire expansion
These results arrive amidst an intense wildfire season in 2026, characterized by prolonged dry spells and extreme heat that fueled large-scale fires. While southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, fires also impacted regions farther north. The projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating heightened fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. The researchers attribute these patterns to alterations in fire weather caused by rising temperatures and increasingly dry conditions.
Importantly, the study does not regard the 192% increase as an unavoidable forecast. Instead, it represents a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions within the study. When examining lower emissions, the researchers found a considerably smaller increase, and substantial reductions are possible through enhanced fire management practices. Nonetheless, they note that fire management alone cannot fully counteract the effects of stronger warming. Ultimately, the findings underscore that emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and fire management capacity are key drivers shaping Europe’s future wildfire landscape.