GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has elevated its projection for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, a significant jump from the earlier estimate of 1.9 percent provided in March. The organization attributed this upward revision to robust trade performance in the first half of the year, supply chain realignments, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite notable disturbances in energy, transportation, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the initial six months of 2026. Looking ahead, the WTO now anticipates merchandise trade to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand linked to artificial intelligence emerged as a key driver of merchandise trade growth during the first half of the year. Goods that enable AI, including semiconductors and servers, represented 47 percent of global merchandise trade expansion. Trade in these items surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Furthermore, the WTO highlighted that global investment in AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026. The rise in demand for computing hardware supported overall trade, even as other sectors faced disruptions stemming from conflicts and transportation bottlenecks.
Adjustments in global supply chains also responded to pressures across major commodities and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined roughly 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Similarly, liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent during this period. Nonetheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers mitigated the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent globally. Meanwhile, LNG exports worldwide decreased by only 1 percent. Container throughput across the globe grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade routes shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-enabled products bolster global merchandise trade
This more optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for commercial services trade. The WTO revised downward its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel sectors. During the second quarter, international tourist arrivals declined by 0.8 percent, bringing the overall increase for the first half of the year to only 0.4 percent. Growth in travel expenditures also slowed significantly between the first and second quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors performed better despite setbacks in travel and transport. Computer services exports increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with the WTO estimating a 12 percent rise in the second quarter. Financial services exports also grew by 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The organization projects that the trade volume of commercial services will expand by 6.4 percent in 2027. Additionally, it forecasts global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in the following year.
Trade growth patterns show regional disparities
Forecasts for merchandise trade across different regions reveal significant disparities. The WTO predicts Asia will lead the way with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America is expected to see a 5.7 percent growth, while Africa is forecasted at 5.6 percent. South America is projected to expand by 3.4 percent. Conversely, Europe is anticipated to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent, with the Middle East facing the steepest contraction, with exports falling by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies notably among regions. Asia is expected to see a 9.5 percent increase in merchandise imports, followed by Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecasted to rise by 1.4 percent, while Europe is projected to grow by 0.5 percent. In contrast, imports into the Middle East are expected to decline sharply by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala commented that these latest figures demonstrate the resilience of trade but also underscore the uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical shocks.