ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output in 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, reflecting a 2% decrease compared to last year’s record high. While this total still ranks as the second-largest on record, the estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July forecast. The annual reduction amounts to 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
For maize, the forecast stands at 1.309 billion tonnes, a downward revision driven by weaker crop prospects. Extended summer heat and dryness impacted yields across major European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates led to smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced yields better than expected, both anticipated to produce well above average maize quantities in 2026.
World wheat production is now estimated at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from previous predictions. Gains in yield expectations for Canada and Morocco, each around 1.5 million tonnes higher, contributed to this upward revision. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine saw increases, although dry conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom tempered expectations. Despite these upward adjustments, global wheat output is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025, ranking as the second-largest crop ever.
Maize reductions influence global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, representing a 1.9% decline from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate is supported by Myanmar’s updated figures and strong yields in Sri Lanka’s main crop. These gains offset declines seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings fell to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption will reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a 0.2% increase from the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, whereas wheat usage is forecast to decrease from last season’s high levels. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and rising food demand. Feed use remains a key component, with barley consumption in China and maize use in the United States contributing significantly.
Global cereal reserves remain at historically comfortable levels
At the end of 2027, world cereal stocks are projected at 947.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the previous season’s 31.9%. While wheat reserves are forecast to grow in Russia and Ukraine, reduced inventories of maize and barley have slightly lowered the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals worldwide for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from prior estimates. Nevertheless, this figure remains below the record levels recorded in 2025/26. The increase is primarily driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. Additionally, international rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, although overall rice shipments are 1.9% below the 2025 record.